Verification Cost Index — the verification-burden trend

BSAHI — verification-side instrument (prototype) Produced: 2026-09-17 · Instrument: tools/research/verify_cost_index.py

Headline

Verification burden trend. Under this scenario, independent verification did NOT get materially harder across 2013-2026: sync time stayed roughly flat (~1-2 days) while the cost relative to the value verified collapsed ~17x.

Absolute dollar figures are scenario-limited: node throughput is assumed, wage/income is held constant, and UTXO state is reconstructed. The trend is the claim; the level is not.

The absolute dollar figure is deliberately not the headline. The index asks Satoshi's node-burden question — does verification cost grow faster than the value of what is verified? — and the answer that survives the assumptions is about direction, not level.

Components (secondary)

component	role	basis	grade
chain storage	must be downloaded and kept	cumulative frozen avg-block-size series	B
UTXO / chain state	must be held in memory/DB to validate	reconstructed era table (anchors + interpolation); observed gettxoutsetinfo layer now being measured	D
bandwidth / sync throughput	sets sync time	assumed commodity archive-sync table (era-scaled)	C
sync time	the time burden	derived: chain size / assumed throughput	C
hardware	capex to verify	not modeled in this leg	—
electricity	energy to verify	see the production-cost note (scenario model)	C
operator labour	human cost	assumed wage ($25/h) and time share	D

Per-era readings

era	chain GB	total GB	sync days	sync cost $ (scenario)	VCI ppm of annual value	affordability % of monthly income
2013	13.47	13.97	0.93	558.69	1.615	13.967
2014	27.67	28.37	0.95	567.38	0.575	14.185
2015	55.51	56.51	1.13	678.1	1.591	16.952
2016	99.37	101.07	1.44	866.35	1.474	21.659
2017	150.67	153.17	1.7	1021.16	0.296	25.529
2018	202.19	205.39	1.87	1120.3	0.203	28.007
2019	261.75	265.75	1.9	1138.91	0.216	28.473
2020	327.03	332.03	1.84	1106.78	0.22	27.669
2021	395.78	401.78	1.83	1095.76	0.065	27.394
2022	463.71	470.71	1.81	1086.25	0.113	27.156
2023	555.7	564.7	1.88	1129.41	0.106	28.235
2024	645.74	655.74	1.93	1157.19	0.077	28.93
2025	729.64	740.64	1.95	1169.44	0.067	29.236
2026	789.45	800.45	2.0	1200.67	0.096	30.017

Confidence

Overall grade: C. Evidence grade C: the trend is robust to the assumptions (it is the SHAPE), but the absolute ratios are scenario-limited and are NOT the headline.
Measured: chain size (frozen daily series); value verified (miners revenue, frozen series).
Assumed: node throughput; UTXO/state size (reconstructed); wage/income; operator time share.
What would move it: capture real IBD benchmarks (sync wall-clock on commodity hardware); swap the reconstructed UTXO table for the observed series as it accumulates; measured hardware/energy/labour costs rather than assumptions.

Method (brief)

Verification time = total bytes to verify (chain + state) ÷ an assumed era-scaled commodity throughput. Verifiable value = miners' revenue (frozen daily series). The index reports verification cost as parts-per-million of one year of the value verified, plus affordability as a share of a fixed monthly income. Full assumptions in the data file.

Roadmap to a harder metric

Capture real IBD benchmarks (wall-clock sync on commodity hardware) instead of assuming throughput.
Swap the reconstructed UTXO/state table for the observed series as utxo_state_measure.py accumulates rows.
Replace assumed wage/energy with measured values.

Data source: data/verify_cost_index.json — deterministic, frozen-input instrument; re-runnable offline.

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