Regime Event — SCCR 0.16 → 0.44: The Fee Market's Storage Coverage, Measured Live
SCCR rose from ~0.16 to ~0.44 in roughly 4–5 days — the fee market's storage coverage doubled-then-nearly-tripled, measured live on real blocks.
"Storage Cost Coverage Ratio" = transaction fees ÷ modeled 10-year storage cost across the real 32K-node census. Below 1.0 = fees do not cover what the data costs the network. It is a live, dated quantity — and it just moved sharply.
The measured series (last 8 points, from the live record)
| Date | avg_SCCR | blocks | below 1× |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | 0.2378 | 148 | 99.3% |
| 2026-08-15 | 0.2095 | 147 | 99.3% |
| 2026-08-16 | 0.1574 (recent low) | 154 | 100% |
| 2026-08-17 | 0.1830 | 164 | 100% |
| 2026-08-18 | 0.2232 | 149 | 100% |
| 2026-08-19 | 0.3187 | 119 | 100% |
| 2026-08-20 | 0.4059 | 126 | 98.4% |
| 2026-08-21 | 0.4433 | 133 | 96.2% |
Bottom line: avg SCCR is up ~2.8× from its 5-day low (0.1574 → 0.4433). The share of blocks below the full-coverage 1× threshold has dropped from 100% to 96.2% — the fee market is now pricing a larger fraction of the storage externality than a week ago, while coverage climbs.
Why it matters (factual reading, no spin)
- This is the first sustained break above the ~0.22–0.29 band that characterized the Aug 02–15 record, into a new, higher regime. That band was the historical baseline for the unpriced-storage-externality thesis; today's reading is material evidence the gap is fee-market-driven and time-varying, not a fixed constant.
- All figures reference the real record:
data/sccr_history.json(14 points, 08-02→08-21) anddata/sccr_latest.json(avg 0.443333, below_1x 128/133 = 96.24%). - Methodological honesty: N=32K is a lower-bound census (08-02); T=10yr is an assumption; the ratio reflects fee pressure, not a change in storage physics.
Provenance
source : /data/sccr_history.json + /data/sccr_latest.json (live, bitcoinsahi.com)
writer : .github/workflows/research-data.yml → tools/generate_research_data.js --only sccr
model : sccr_live.py --frozen, spec v2.1.0
verified: curl https://bitcoinsahi.com/data/sccr_history.json → count 14, matches origin/main