{
  "schema": "bsahi.fee-allocation/1",
  "layer": "modelled",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-17T09:19:24.291305+00:00",
  "method": "tools/research/fee_allocation.py \u2014 three claims on fee revenue, per block, and the subsidy crossover. Subsidy arithmetic is exact; prices/energy are a scenario.",
  "current": {
    "year": 2026,
    "price_usd": 68005.38,
    "subsidy_btc": 3.125,
    "claims_usd_per_block": {
      "security_energy_cost": 198549.0,
      "storage_externality_L_net": 4676.0,
      "network_node_opex_1yr_per_block": 467.57
    },
    "revenue_usd_per_block": {
      "subsidy": 212517.0,
      "fees_measured": 1415.0,
      "fees_implied_by_sccr": 1622.0,
      "production_value_total": 236830.0
    },
    "coverage_pct": {
      "security_by_subsidy_pct": 107.0,
      "security_by_fees_pct": 0.7,
      "storage_by_fees_pct": 34.7,
      "network_node_opex_1yr_by_fees_pct": 302.6
    }
  },
  "halving_schedule": [
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "subsidy_btc": 3.125,
      "subsidy_usd_per_block_at_current_price": 212517.0
    },
    {
      "year": 2028,
      "subsidy_btc": 1.5625,
      "subsidy_usd_per_block_at_current_price": 106258.0
    },
    {
      "year": 2032,
      "subsidy_btc": 0.78125,
      "subsidy_usd_per_block_at_current_price": 53129.0
    },
    {
      "year": 2036,
      "subsidy_btc": 0.390625,
      "subsidy_usd_per_block_at_current_price": 26565.0
    },
    {
      "year": 2040,
      "subsidy_btc": 0.1953125,
      "subsidy_usd_per_block_at_current_price": 13282.0
    },
    {
      "year": 2048,
      "subsidy_btc": 0.048828125,
      "subsidy_usd_per_block_at_current_price": 3321.0
    },
    {
      "year": 2076,
      "subsidy_btc": 0.0003814697265625,
      "subsidy_usd_per_block_at_current_price": 26.0
    },
    {
      "year": 2100,
      "subsidy_btc": 5.9604644775390625e-06,
      "subsidy_usd_per_block_at_current_price": 0.0
    }
  ],
  "crossovers": {
    "combined_claim_usd_per_block": 203225.0,
    "fees_must_cover_security_from_year": 2028,
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "price_usd": 50000,
        "subsidy_covers_energy_until_year": 2024,
        "note": "year the block subsidy alone falls below the current network-wide energy cost of production (flat-energy scenario)"
      },
      {
        "price_usd": 78000,
        "subsidy_covers_energy_until_year": 2028,
        "note": "year the block subsidy alone falls below the current network-wide energy cost of production (flat-energy scenario)"
      },
      {
        "price_usd": 150000,
        "subsidy_covers_energy_until_year": 2032,
        "note": "year the block subsidy alone falls below the current network-wide energy cost of production (flat-energy scenario)"
      },
      {
        "price_usd": 300000,
        "subsidy_covers_energy_until_year": 2036,
        "note": "year the block subsidy alone falls below the current network-wide energy cost of production (flat-energy scenario)"
      }
    ],
    "class": "C \u2014 scenario, not a forecast"
  },
  "grades": {
    "halving schedule": "A (arithmetic)",
    "energy cost / storage L_net / node opex": "C (documented assumptions on measured legs)",
    "fee revenue": "B (frozen series: transaction-fees BTC/day x market price)",
    "multi-decade projection": "C (scenario)"
  },
  "headline": "Fees must eventually fund both security and the storage/verification burden; today they fund almost neither. At ~$68,005/BTC the 2026 fee revenue is ~$1,415/block against a ~$198,549/block energy cost to produce a block and a ~$4,676/block modeled 10-year storage cost \u2014 so fees cover 0.7% of production and 34.7% of storage, while the subsidy (107.0% of energy cost) is still paying the security bill. Under a flat price the subsidy alone stops covering energy around 2028.",
  "temporal": {
    "layer": "modelled",
    "grade": "C \u2014 price paths are scenarios; the halving is arithmetic",
    "paths": {
      "bsahi_specified": [
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "subsidy_btc": 3.125,
          "price_usd": 50000,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 156250.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 42299.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 46975.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "subsidy_btc": 1.5625,
          "price_usd": 78000,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 121875.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 76674.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 81350.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2032,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.78125,
          "price_usd": 150000,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 117188.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 81362.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 86038.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2036,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.390625,
          "price_usd": 300000,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 117188.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 81362.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 86038.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2040,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.1953125,
          "price_usd": 600000.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 117187.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 81362.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 86038.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2044,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.09765625,
          "price_usd": 1200000.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 117187.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 81362.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 86038.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        }
      ],
      "flat_current_price": [
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "subsidy_btc": 3.125,
          "price_usd": 68005.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 212517.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 0.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "subsidy_btc": 1.5625,
          "price_usd": 68005.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 106258.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 92291.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 96967.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2032,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.78125,
          "price_usd": 68005.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 53129.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 145420.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 150096.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2036,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.390625,
          "price_usd": 68005.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 26565.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 171985.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 176660.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2040,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.1953125,
          "price_usd": 68005.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 13282.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 185267.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 189943.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2044,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.09765625,
          "price_usd": 68005.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 6641.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 191908.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 196584.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2048,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.048828125,
          "price_usd": 68005.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 3321.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 195229.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 199904.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2052,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.0244140625,
          "price_usd": 68005.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 1660.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 196889.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 201565.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2056,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.01220703125,
          "price_usd": 68005.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 830.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 197719.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 202395.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        },
        {
          "year": 2060,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.006103515625,
          "price_usd": 68005.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 415.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 198134.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 202810.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": false
        }
      ],
      "double_each_epoch": [
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "subsidy_btc": 3.125,
          "price_usd": 68005.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 212517.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 0.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "subsidy_btc": 1.5625,
          "price_usd": 136011.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 212517.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 0.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2032,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.78125,
          "price_usd": 272022.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 212517.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 0.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2036,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.390625,
          "price_usd": 544043.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 212517.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 0.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2040,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.1953125,
          "price_usd": 1088086.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 212517.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 0.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2044,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.09765625,
          "price_usd": 2176172.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 212517.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 0.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2048,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.048828125,
          "price_usd": 4352345.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 212517.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 0.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2052,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.0244140625,
          "price_usd": 8704689.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 212517.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 0.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2056,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.01220703125,
          "price_usd": 17409378.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 212517.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 0.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2060,
          "subsidy_btc": 0.006103515625,
          "price_usd": 34818757.0,
          "subsidy_usd_per_block": 212517.0,
          "production_deficit_usd_per_block": 0.0,
          "storage_claim_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "total_fee_needed_usd_per_block": 4676.0,
          "subsidy_covers_energy": true
        }
      ]
    },
    "invariant": "If price doubles each halving epoch, the USD subsidy is ~constant (observed plateau ~$117,188/block across the specified path), because the halving cancels the appreciation. Nominal security protection therefore does not grow with an appreciating price on this path \u2014 the fee requirement rises on schedule regardless.",
    "note": "production_deficit = max(0, energy_cost - subsidy_usd). total_fee_needed adds the modeled storage claim."
  },
  "caveat": "Miners are fee RECIPIENTS and validators are cost BEARERS \u2014 that asymmetry is the externality. The 241k/218k address figures are addresses, not nodes, and are not used here."
}